Making Sense of Fibers: A Narrative Bayesian Approach to Forensic Evaluation
Organized by: International Forensic Scientist Awards
Website: forensicscientist.org
13th Edition of Forensic Scientist Awards 28-29 July 2025 | Berlin Germany, India
Evaluating forensic fibre evidence at the activity level can be a daunting task. The complexity lies not just in the microscopic fibres themselves, but in the myriad of contextual factors—who did what, when, and how—that need to be assessed to understand the significance of the findings. In forensic science, these are known as activity level propositions, and they often demand more than just raw data—they require structured reasoning.
🔍 Why Bayesian Networks?
Bayesian Networks (BNs) are increasingly used in forensic science to bring structure and clarity to the evaluation process. These graphical models allow forensic experts to incorporate both data and expert judgment, transparently showing how different elements of a case influence one another. However, in the world of fibre and microtrace evidence, such models remain underutilized—mainly because existing approaches are often too complex or inaccessible for routine casework.
🧩 Introducing a Narrative-Based Methodology
Our recent work introduces a simplified methodology for constructing narrative Bayesian networks specifically tailored for forensic fibre evidence under activity level propositions. Instead of diving deep into technical complexity, our approach builds networks through storytelling—a structured narrative that walks through the case logic step-by-step.
This methodology serves as a starting point for forensic practitioners to design their own case-specific BNs. By using an illustrative case scenario, we demonstrate how narrative BNs can:
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✅ Transparently integrate key case details
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✅ Offer clear pathways for expert interpretation
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✅ Allow sensitivity analysis based on varying inputs
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✅ Improve communication with legal decision-makers
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✅ Enhance interdisciplinary collaboration (e.g., with forensic biology)
🧬 From Biology to Fibers – A Consistent Approach
One of the strongest advantages of this approach is its alignment with successful practices in forensic biology, where narrative-based BNs have already proven effective in courtrooms. This consistency not only strengthens communication across forensic disciplines but also supports the move toward more unified, holistic forensic reporting.
Conclusion:
The proposed methodology provides a systematic approach for constructing narrative Bayesian networks that integrate activity level propositions in the evaluation of forensic fibre evidence. By combining domain knowledge with probabilistic reasoning, this framework enhances the transparency, consistency, and interpretability of forensic conclusions.
🔗 Learn more and apply at:
https://forensicscientist.org/
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